**• Include in your paper statistical information around the likelihood of a successful host**

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• Include in your paper statistical information around the likelihood of a successful hostage negotiation given the

information provided and the length of time that the situation persists. For example, after a one hour standoff, what is the

likelihood (in percentages) that the negotiation will end successfully? After four hours? After eight hours? How does the

likelihood of a successful negotiation change over the course of time?

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